New research reveals how different ecosystems, including those in Oregon, will likely change dramatically in as soon as 20 years as the climate warms.
Using a technique called Climate Analog Modeling, scientists project how different landscapes will change from 2040 to 2070, when global temperatures are expected to be warmer by about two degrees Celsius.
Tyler Hoecker, landscape fire ecologist for the group Vibrant Planet and lead author of “Alternative Future Vegetation Pathways Reveal Potential Transformations of Western US Ecosystems,” a new Global Change Biology paper that presents the findings, said some of the Northwest forests known today will not survive the change.
“A lot of the forests in Eastern Oregon are dry, mixed conifer forests,” he said. “These are the types of trees that in the U.S. are basically the warmest, driest forest type. And so if it gets any warmer and drier, that’s not going to be supporting forests anymore.”
Hoecker said places such as the Blue Mountains and the foothills of the Wallowas could shift from forest to grassland or shrubland within just a few decades. He explained that Climate Analog Modeling makes predictions by comparing today’s ecosystems to places that are nearby, but are already two degrees warmer.
Hoecker noted that the two-degree warming threshold is very likely to be crossed by mid-century, given that the planet is already about 1.2 degrees warmer than pre-industrial levels. He said understanding how dramatically some areas will change is important ecologically, but also for planning.
“Thirty years is really not a long time frame,” he said, “when we’re talking infrastructure investments, natural resource investments, personal real estate, whatever it may be.”
Hoecker also helped develop the Vegetation Futures web tool, which allows users to search detailed maps of changes that are likely to occur.
Source: Isobel Charle, Public Newsservice
